Publications

Major scientific publications to date - more reliable than what you find on the news and facebook - but not exactly foolproof.






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The arrogance of preventive medicine - David Sucket

Preventive medicine displays all 3 elements of arrogance.  First, it is aggressively assertive , pursuing symptomless individuals and telling them what they must do to remain healthy. Occasionally invoking the force of law (immunizations, seat belts), it prescribes and proscribes for both individual patients and the general citizenry of every age and stage.  Second, preventive medicine is presumptuous , confident that the interventions it espouses will, on average, do more good than harm to those who accept and adhere to them.  Finally, preventive medicine is overbearing , attacking those who question the value of its recommendations.
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Understanding disease spread - the underlying math

A fundamental issue when it comes to understanding pandemics - and epidemiology in general - is the crucial role of mathematics combined with the lack of math skills among the majority of "specialists" involved in disease control, general medicine, policy and even medical research. This follows through to the general public, who are bombarded with various opinions and analyses from these specialists and an uncoordinated response from the government. Ironically, a random computer scientist would be able to grasp the theoretical basis of the equations below than your family doctor. The basic reproduction ratio, R 0 = 1 + rΤ; where r is the intrinsic growth rate, and T the mean generation interval. r can be estimated by Poisson regression of the epidemic curve. The "final size" or the proportion of the population that will eventually get infected can be estimated by solving the following for  χ. ln(1 - χ ) + R 0 χ = 0 By the way, Prof Neil Furguson and associa...
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Vaccine adverse events and the TGA's role in monitoring them - is it failing the Australian public?

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