Publications

Major scientific publications to date - more reliable than what you find on the news and facebook - but not exactly foolproof.






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Understanding disease spread - the underlying math

A fundamental issue when it comes to understanding pandemics - and epidemiology in general - is the crucial role of mathematics combined with the lack of math skills among the majority of "specialists" involved in disease control, general medicine, policy and even medical research. This follows through to the general public, who are bombarded with various opinions and analyses from these specialists and an uncoordinated response from the government. Ironically, a random computer scientist would be able to grasp the theoretical basis of the equations below than your family doctor. The basic reproduction ratio, R 0 = 1 + rΤ; where r is the intrinsic growth rate, and T the mean generation interval. r can be estimated by Poisson regression of the epidemic curve. The "final size" or the proportion of the population that will eventually get infected can be estimated by solving the following for  χ. ln(1 - χ ) + R 0 χ = 0 By the way, Prof Neil Furguson and associa...
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Covid19 vaccination uptake and appropriateness and effectiveness of state mandates

Background The Australian vaccination program was slow, inefficient and riddled with political interference for the better part of the first half of 2021. ScoMo famously - or notoriously, depending on one's opinion - said in the very outset that it was not a race. Come winter and the outbreaks that come with it (seriously, did no one predict that?), NSW and VIC was plunged into never ending lockdowns. This is when the above statement came back to bite the PM, in particular with the Victorian Labor government wasting no time in shifting the blame to the commonwealth in a desperate effort to divert attention from its own shortcomings. For the average Victorian, it was just dejavu.  With a federal election looming, ScoMo had to turn the tide and get ready for his endgame. Enter Doherty Institute's modelling  on the national plan to transition Australia's National COVID Response. I will not go into the intricate details of the different scenarios proposed by the modelling here,...
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Expert Panel on Covid Vaccine Injuries

This panel discussion put together by Sen. Ron Johnson of the United States features vaccine injury victims as well as scientists and members of the medical community who have declined to blindly follow the narrative. The horrendous stories of the victims bring to light the apathy and complicity of the wider medical community as well as the extreme fear of retribution for calling out the holes in the narrative. Attorney Aaron Siri Esq goes into detail (3:19) about what he has witnessed and experienced in this regard. The  NEJM paper on AstraZeneca's Phase 3 data  published recently surprisingly shows the incidence of the well known adverse event VITT as being similar between the vaccine and placebo groups. Does it not sound too good to be true? Anyone not used to critically evaluating clinical data - or even scientific publications in general - may just brush it off as good news. For me, it triggered a small spark of curiosity that compelled me to dig more.  Combine ...
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