Understanding disease spread - the underlying math
A fundamental issue when it comes to understanding pandemics - and epidemiology in general - is the crucial role of mathematics combined with the lack of math skills among the majority of "specialists" involved in disease control, general medicine, policy and even medical research. This follows through to the general public, who are bombarded with various opinions and analyses from these specialists and an uncoordinated response from the government. Ironically, a random computer scientist would be able to grasp the theoretical basis of the equations below than your family doctor.
The basic reproduction ratio, R0 = 1 + rΤ;
where r is the intrinsic growth rate, and T the mean generation interval. r can be estimated by Poisson regression of the epidemic curve. The "final size" or the proportion of the population that will eventually get infected can be estimated by solving the following for χ.
ln(1 - χ) + R0χ = 0
By the way, Prof Neil Furguson and associates from Imperial College London have been doing various analyses of different aspects of the outbreak and spread of the disease, which can be found here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
They also have an online course delivered through coursera that might be beneficial for anyone who needs to know more about the dynamics of the outbreak:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19
The basic reproduction ratio, R0 = 1 + rΤ;
where r is the intrinsic growth rate, and T the mean generation interval. r can be estimated by Poisson regression of the epidemic curve. The "final size" or the proportion of the population that will eventually get infected can be estimated by solving the following for χ.
ln(1 - χ) + R0χ = 0
By the way, Prof Neil Furguson and associates from Imperial College London have been doing various analyses of different aspects of the outbreak and spread of the disease, which can be found here:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
They also have an online course delivered through coursera that might be beneficial for anyone who needs to know more about the dynamics of the outbreak:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/covid-19
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