COVID-19

Case study - Melbourne, Australia On 22nd March 2020, the Premier announced that the government will implement a shutdown of "all non-essential activity" across the state to combat the spread of Coronavirus within 48 hours. "This is not something that we do lightly, but it’s clear that if we don’t take this step, more Victorians will contract coronavirus, our hospitals will be overwhelmed and more Victorians will die. Victorians will still be able to go to the supermarket, the bank, the pharmacy and other essential stores, like petrol stations and convenience stores. Freight, logisitics and home delivery are also considered essential and will remain open. I will also inform National Cabinet that school holidays will be brought forward in Victoria, starting on Tuesday 24 March." On 28th March 2020, Melbourne entered into a Stage 3 lockdown, and all incoming international passengers were placed in hotel quarantine for 14 days. Victoria Police has been given the power ...

A fundamental issue when it comes to understanding pandemics - and epidemiology in general - is the crucial role of mathematics combined with the lack of math skills among the majority of "specialists" involved in disease control, general medicine, policy and even medical research. This follows through to the general public, who are bombarded with various opinions and analyses from these specialists and an uncoordinated response from the government. Ironically, a random computer scientist would be able to grasp the theoretical basis of the equations below than your family doctor. The basic reproduction ratio, R 0 = 1 + rΤ; where r is the intrinsic growth rate, and T the mean generation interval. r can be estimated by Poisson regression of the epidemic curve. The "final size" or the proportion of the population that will eventually get infected can be estimated by solving the following for  χ. ln(1 - χ ) + R 0 χ = 0 By the way, Prof Neil Furguson and associa...

Major scientific publications to date - more reliable than what you find on the news and facebook - but not exactly foolproof. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41587-020-00002-2 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-129-genomes-24-feb-2020/356 Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE

The Australian government has now declared it a pandemic, which by itself is a good thing as it is high time it was taken seriously. It remains to be seen what actual measures will be put in place, given the overall lax standard that prevailed in the country until now.  I will post my experience as a traveler within the last six weeks, retrospectively, looking at how different governments started reacting to the impending crisis and also my premonitions as an epidemiologist, as well as what we can and must all do to keep ourselves safe for months to come.